Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in academia but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail here and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has got something to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
